Calculating and Taking Risk

Many of us actively avoid risks. Sure, risks can be dangerous, but to progress in many facets of life, they’re often a necessary evil. Without taking risks, businesses stagnate, personal progress stagnates and whilst others are progressing, you’re left in a heap of worry over “what if?”. In business, people abandon you for more innovative competitors that continuously offer something new and exciting. In life, it becomes mundane, repetitive and worrisome. Learning how to take calculated risks (what we would classify as good risks) can be life-changing. Bad risks are often taken on a whim, with very little thought process behind them.

Understanding the Concept of Calculated Risk

Every project and decision you make in life carries a risk of failure. But if you focus on that and only see failure in a negative light, incredible opportunities often slip through your fingers. This is a consequence of your mindset, how you interpret failure and is often deep-rooted and linked to the pressure accumulated from your family, peers and society. We therefore often have a tendency to exaggerate the negative consequences. We come up with unrealistic worst-case scenarios and assume that the risk will end up going this route. The first key is to understand that failing isn’t a bad thing. It’s an opportunity for learning, an opportunity to learn from your mistakes and figure out what you might have done wrong the first time. To discredit failure for what it is is to go through life expecting to succeed in every effort. You see how crazy or maybe arrogant that is. I assure you that most people who are risk-averse aren’t the arrogant type. Making a strategic plan with the intent of success, is calculated. It means identifying probable failures in advance and developing plans to perhaps avoid them successfully. It means weighing all your options, making an excellent, data-based plan, and taking the leap. It also gives you data to fall back on that you can learn from and adjust. You know when you did something really well and didn’t know how you did it? It’s frustrating right? You can’t replicate something you didn’t plan in most cases.

The Tricky Relationship with Fear

Fear can easily prevent you from taking any kind of risk. Because of your fear of failure, you may never step out of the proverbial comfort zone. As we’ve already established, that isn’t a good thing in life or business. You also need to understand that, sometimes, your gut feeling may be lying to you or quite simply wrong. That nervous apprehension you have, could be wrong. It may tell you that something is scary, but that doesn’t mean it’s risky. It may also tell you that some opportunity is too good to miss, when, in reality, your chances of success may be slim. That fear can overestimate the level of risk, while the absence of it can, in contrast, underestimate the risk. That means you shouldn’t always go with your gut, as it may play tricks on you. Again, the key lies in calculating the risk. Measuring it is the only way to stop focusing on fear (and your lying gut!) and keep your eyes on the outcome you want.

The Fine Line Between Emotion and Logic

Whether it’s your fear or the thrill of a new opportunity, your emotions can stand in the way of your success. Therefore, you need to try and take them out of the equation and make room for logic. This is often, as you can imagine, easier said than done, especially when it comes to your own life. It can be challenging to step back and look at things objectively. By nature, most of us are pessimists and give risks an unrealistic probability of failure. The risk of it not going the way we planned is often much lower than we think. Put everything on paper. Write down all the advantages and disadvantages of the opportunity before you. Use logic to calculate whether the risk is worth taking, or if there’s enough evidence showing that you should avoid it altogether. Look realistically at what will happen if it goes right and what could happen if it goes wrong. Remember that it’s not uncommon to underestimate your ability to handle the consequences of risk, even if it does go wrong, in most cases it’s something you can handle. When in doubt, don’t shy away from asking for help. A fresh set of eyes and a fresh mind could give you a whole new perspective on things.

Research Helps You Take Risks from a Position of Knowledge

Before taking any risks, do your homework. Conduct thorough research to inspect every little detail and dig deep into the numbers. Take the time to gather all the necessary knowledge to understand all the benefits and uncover potential obstacles. The research will help you spot red flags and evaluate your chances of success.

Hunt for Potential Mistakes

If you can predict mistakes way before you set sail for your risk adventure, you’ll be able to determine if the risk is worth taking. For instance, think about what would happen if you couldn’t meet the deadline for your desired project. What if you lose a lot of money? What if you lose friends or clients? Think about worst-case scenarios, and focus more on them than on the positive outcomes. If too many potential mistakes keep popping up, you might want to avoid taking that particular risk or try a different approach.

Go All-In When You Find Sure Footing

Once your calculated risk feels right, and you’re absolutely sure it’ll lead to success, take the leap. Embrace the fear and take action. By that point, you’ve done your research and due diligence, and you’re not playing a guessing game. You’ve crunched the numbers, and you know the opportunity is ideal. Again, everything we do carries a risk of failure, but you’ve driven it down to a minimum by measuring all the pros, cons, probable negatives, and potential outcomes. So, jump and reap the rewards.

Risk vs Uncertainty

Many people confuse risks with uncertainty. Uncertainty is when all the factors and variables are unknown to you. Risk refers to making a decision based on known factors and potential outcomes. Weather can be calculated if you look at forecasts. It becomes uncertain when you assume what's going to happen because it’s a particular season. Make sure you know the difference.

Be Aware of Survivor Bias

Survivor bias means focusing on people or organisations that have succeeded in a particular endeavour while excluding those who have failed. Don’t let yourself be polarised and often blindsided by a few successful outcomes, when there may be far more negative ones. Get a clear picture to make sure you set yourself up for success.

Conclusion

Taking risks is important, but taking calculated risks is what will make all of your endeavours bear fruit. It will help you step out of your comfort zone, remain innovative, and grow continually. Just remember to do your due diligence, focus on logic, and pull the trigger when everything feels and looks right.
The HMN24 Team
Tags: Mindset Psychology Self Development
Left Older Post Back to Articles Newer Post Right

FURTHER READING

Blog posts

The First 7 Minutes After Waking: Why They Matter More Than You Think

The First 7 Minutes After Waking: Why They Matter More Than You Think

Modern neuroscience confirms what ancient traditions have practised for millennia: the first few minutes after you wake up are biologically powerful.

Your brain doesn’t flick on like a light switch. It transitions, slowly and delicately, through a cascade of brainwave states:

Delta → Theta → Alpha → Beta

These transitions reflect the shift from deep sleep (delta), through drowsiness and subconscious processing (theta), into relaxed awareness (alpha), and eventually into full alertness (beta).

Gamma, the fastest and most subtle of the brainwave frequencies, is typically associated with heightened cognitive processing, insight, and peak states of consciousness. While not dominant in the first few minutes of waking, gamma activity can emerge later in the morning, or more rapidly in trained meditators, when the brain begins to integrate thought, emotion, and sensory input into a coherent experience.

 

 

This means that during the first 5 to 10 minutes of wakefulness, you’re not fully asleep, but you’re not fully awake either. You’re in a unique, mouldable neurobiological state that scientists call a neuroplastic window, where your brain is most open to new programming.

This is your most influential moment of the day.

 

What’s Happening in Your Brain

During this waking transition:

  • The Default Mode Network (DMN), the brain’s internal narrator, begins to light up. It controls self-talk, emotional tone, and how we perceive ourselves and the world (Smallwood et al., 2021; Edlow et al., 2024).

  • The Reticular Activating System (RAS) switches on. It decides what’s important by scanning your environment through the lens of your current emotional state (Negelspach et al., 2025).

  • Your brain hemispheres synchronise, promoting coherence, clarity, and creative thinking (Wang et al., 2025).

 

Stressful first thoughts?

The RAS filters your day through threat detection.

Grateful first thoughts?

It scans for opportunity, healing, and connection.

Your first thoughts are not neutral. They set your emotional and cognitive trajectory for the entire day (Yadav & Purushotham, 2025; Devaney et al., 2021).

You’re Not Just a Mind in a Body

You are an electromagnetic system living in a connected field of energy. Research now supports what mystics, monks, and performance experts have known for decades:

Your thoughts become biology. Your biology becomes behaviour. Your behaviour becomes your future.

When your intention (mental clarity) aligns with an elevated emotion (like awe, gratitude, or joy), you begin to create physiological coherence, a synchronised state between your brain, heart, and nervous system (Ahn et al., 2021; Bukkieva et al., 2022).

In this state:

  • Synaptic pathways rewire

  • Your immune system balances

  • Emotional resilience strengthens

  • Gene expression can shift

  • Your nervous system "memorises" a new baseline (Valenta et al., 2025; Titone et al., 2023)

 


Your 7-Minute Morning Protocol

You don’t need technology. You don’t need a perfect routine.
You just need awareness and intention.

Here is a practical protocol, backed by neuroscience, to help you rewire your mind and body from the moment you wake up:

Step-by-Step 7-Minute Morning Protocol

You don’t need technology. You don’t need a perfect routine.
You need awareness and intention.

The first few minutes after waking are a powerful biological window—a period of heightened neuroplasticity and emotional influence. What you do in this time shapes how your nervous system responds to the world for the rest of the day.

Here’s a practical step-by-step protocol to guide those first moments with intention:

1. Wake Gently

Let your body come to naturally. Avoid harsh alarms that jolt your system into a stress response. Give yourself permission to rise slowly, without urgency.

2. Avoid Your Phone

Reaching for your phone immediately forces your brain into beta waves (high-alert mode), disrupting the slower, more programmable states of theta and alpha. Stay in the softness of waking. Let your internal world settle before external stimuli intrude.

3. Place Your Hand on Your Heart

This simple act grounds you. It activates the vagus nerve, supporting emotional regulation and heart-brain coherence. Let your attention settle into your body.

4. Breathe Slowly and Deeply

Inhale through the nose for 4 seconds, exhale through the mouth for 6. Repeat for 3 to 4 minutes. This breathing pattern supports parasympathetic activation—bringing calm, focus, and internal alignment.

5. Cultivate an Elevated Emotional State

Bring to mind someone or something you deeply love. Recall a moment of awe, joy, or deep gratitude. Smile gently. Let your body feel calm, safe, and expansive. This is not about performance—it’s about coherence.

6. Speak Like Your Future Self

Now that your system is receptive, introduce affirmations—spoken internally or aloud—as your future self would speak them. Use intentional, emotionally resonant language.

Here are some modern, grounded affirmations to guide you:

Personal Leadership & Direction

Affirmations that reinforce clarity, self-trust, and inner authority:

  • “I lead my life with clarity and calm direction.”

  • “I respond with purpose, not pressure.”

  • “I honour progress over perfection today.”

  • “I am becoming the version of me I respect.”

  • “I trust my process. I’m already aligned.”

  • “I am exactly where I need to be to take the next step.”

Resilience & Adaptability

Affirmations that support emotional flexibility and grounded strength:

  • “Whatever arises, I meet it with presence and capacity.”

  • “I am wired for change and built for resilience.”

  • “Challenge sharpens me. I stay grounded in motion.”

  • “I move from centre, not from stress.”

  • “My nervous system is calm, and my mind is clear.”

Focus & Intentional Action

Affirmations that support mental clarity, focus, and productive intention:

  • “Today I move with direction, not distraction.”

  • “I choose energy that matches my intention.”

  • “I prioritise what matters. The rest can wait.”

  • “Peace is my default. Focus is my return point.”

Gratitude & Emotional Coherence

Affirmations that promote emotional alignment and heart-brain synchrony:

  • “This day is a gift. I meet it with quiet strength.”

  • “I feel supported, resourced, and ready.”

  • “My heart leads. My body follows. My mind aligns.”

Each of these is a message to your nervous system, spoken as if the future is already embodied. Use them in stillness. Speak them with emotion. Let your physiology anchor the future you’re rehearsing.

7. Visualise Your Desired Reality

Now, visualise your ideal day, state, or outcome, not as a hope, but as if it has already occurred. Let it play in your mind’s eye with detail and emotional texture. This isn’t wishing. It’s rehearsing coherence.

 

Why It Works

This process works because it aligns with your biology:

  • Neuroplasticity is at its peak during transitional states, especially when paired with strong emotions and repetition (Chen et al., 2025).

  • The Reticular Activating System (RAS) filters your environment through the emotional lens you set at waking (Devaney et al., 2021).

  • Coherence between heart and brain enhances clarity, memory, and immune response (Mueller et al., 2021; Jespersen et al., 2024).

  • Repeating these patterns daily helps your nervous system establish them as a new baseline (Dennison, 2024; Ma et al., 2023).


Final Thoughts

The first seven minutes of your day are not a luxury. They are leverage.

  • Coherence is the signal.

  • Intention is the vector.

  • Emotion is the charge.

So tomorrow morning, don’t scroll. Don’t rehearse stress.

Instead, tune your frequency.

Let your thoughts direct your biology. Let your body believe before your mind begins to doubt.

Your brain is listening.
Your cells are listening.
The field is listening.

Train it. Shape it. Repeat it.

References

Aggarwal, A. (2025). Brain connectivity using EEG data. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.26.634935

Ahn, J., Lee, D., Namkoong, K., & Jung, Y. (2021). Altered functional connectivity of the salience network in problematic smartphone users. Frontiers in Psychiatry, 12. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpsyt.2021.636730

Bukkieva, T., Pospelova, M., Efimtsev, A., Fionik, O., Alekseeva, T., Samochernych, K., & Shevtsov, M. (2022). Functional network connectivity reveals the brain functional alterations in breast cancer survivors. Journal of Clinical Medicine, 11(3), 617. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm11030617

Chen, J., Lewis, L., Coursey, S., Catana, C., Polimeni, J., Fan, J., & Rosen, B. (2025). Simultaneous EEG-PET-MRI identifies temporally coupled, spatially structured hemodynamic and metabolic dynamics across wakefulness and NREM sleep. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.01.17.633689

Devaney, K., Levin, E., Tripathi, V., Higgins, J., Lazar, S., & Somers, D. (2021). Attention and default mode network assessments of meditation experience during active cognition and rest. Brain Sciences, 11(5), 566. https://doi.org/10.3390/brainsci11050566

Dennison, P. (2024). The enigma of jhāna and implications for neuroscience, consciousness studies and research methodology. https://doi.org/10.31219/osf.io/ncp25

Edlow, B., Olchanyi, M., Freeman, H., Li, J., Maffei, C., Snider, S., & Kinney, H. (2024). Multimodal MRI reveals brainstem connections that sustain wakefulness in human consciousness. Science Translational Medicine, 16(745). https://doi.org/10.1126/scitranslmed.adj4303

Hardikar, S., McKeown, B., Schaare, H., Wallace, R., Xu, T., Lauckner, M., & Smallwood, J. (2024). Macro-scale patterns in functional connectivity associated with ongoing thought patterns and dispositional traits. eLife, 13. https://doi.org/10.7554/eLife.93689

Jespersen, K., Stevner, A., Kringelbach, M., Someren, E., Vidaurre, D., & Vuust, P. (2024). Modelling of brain dynamics reveals reduced switching between brain states in insomnia disorder – a resting-state fMRI study. https://doi.org/10.1101/2024.11.27.625644

Ma, M., Li, Y., Shao, Y., & Weng, X. (2023). Effect of total sleep deprivation on effective EEG connectivity for young males in resting-state networks in different eye states. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 17. https://doi.org/10.3389/fnins.2023.1204457

Mueller, J., Pritschet, L., Santander, T., Taylor, C., Grafton, S., Jacobs, E., & Carlson, J. (2021). Dynamic community detection reveals transient reorganization of functional brain networks across a female menstrual cycle. Network Neuroscience, 5(1), 125–144. https://doi.org/10.1162/netn_a_00169

Negelspach, D., Kennedy, K., Huskey, A., Cha, J., Alkozei, A., & Killgore, W. (2025). Mapping the neural basis of wake onset regularity and its effects on sleep quality and positive affect. Clocks & Sleep, 7(1), 15. https://doi.org/10.3390/clockssleep7010015

Smallwood, J., Bernhardt, B., Leech, R., Bzdok, D., Jefferies, E., & Margulies, D. (2021). The default mode network in cognition: A topographical perspective. Nature Reviews Neuroscience, 22(8), 503–513. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41583-021-00474-4

Titone, S., Samogin, J., Peigneux, P., Swinnen, S., Mantini, D., & Albouy, G. (2023). Frequency-dependent connectivity in large-scale resting-state brain networks during sleep. European Journal of Neuroscience, 59(4), 686–702. https://doi.org/10.1111/ejn.16080

Valenta, S., Ventura, S., Benuzzi, F., Rizzello, F., Gionchetti, P., Ronchi, D., & Filippini, N. (2025). A heavy feeling in the stomach: Neural correlates of anxiety in Crohn’s disease. Neurogastroenterology & Motility, 37(7). https://doi.org/10.1111/nmo.70029

Wang, X., Peters, E., Strelen, J., Lockhart, N., Franklin, M., LaBerge, S., & Erlacher, D. (2025). EEG microstates reveal distinct network dynamics in lucid and non-lucid REM sleep. https://doi.org/10.1101/2025.02.12.637792

Yadav, A., & Purushotham, A. (2025). Cortical structure in nodes of the default mode network estimates general intelligence. Brain and Behavior, 15(5). https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.70531

Yang, M. (2025). Study on large-scale brain network abnormalities in patients with beta-thalassemia. Brain and Behavior, 15(6). https://doi.org/10.1002/brb3.70614

Performance Hospitality: What Is Still Being Overlooked

Performance Hospitality: What Is Still Being Overlooked

The hospitality industry is in the midst of a significant evolution. Wellness is no longer a niche feature or optional add-on. It is becoming a central pillar of the guest experience.

Understanding Fasting as a Biological Rhythm

Understanding Fasting as a Biological Rhythm

Fasting is not simply a wellness trend; it is a deeply conserved biological behaviour observed across mammalian species. Feeding and fasting cycles in mammals are governed by circadian rhythms, the internal timekeeping systems that align physiological functions with the 24-hour light-dark cycle.